Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to meet in Uzbekistan

Major setbacks for Moscow’s forces in Ukraine will further test the “limitless partnership” between China and Russia when their leaders meet this week for the first time since the invasion, analysts have said.

The meeting of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Thursday at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, is likely to involve jostling for influence in central Asia, where the two global powers have long waged a “quiet rivalry”.

The SCO summit, an annual meeting of Eurasian leaders on regional politics, economics and security, occurs at a crucial time when a rising China and weakening Russia could shift the central Asia power balance in Beijing’s favour.

Both leaders have also scheduled stops in Kazakhstan, where Mr Xi first launched his trademark “belt and road” foreign investment initiative in 2013. Underscoring the importance of the region, Mr Xi’s visit will be his first international trip since the pandemic began and comes just a month before a crucial Communist Party meeting expected to cement his precedent-breaking third term as leader.

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Central Asia was “at the heart of Xi’s strategies”, said Therese Fallon, director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies. “If we think about China’s grand strategy ... it’s pretty clear they’ve been pushing westward.”

Mr Xi and Mr Putin last met on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where they announced their partnership, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian officials have said the two leaders have a “full-fledged and detailed agenda” for the talks, and some analysts said they expect Mr Putin to seek more help from China after Russia experienced one of its worst setbacks in the war.

Beijing has struggled to balance its support for Moscow with a wish to avoid the indirect impact on its economy of sanctions levelled at Russia by the West. It has refused to condemn the invasion, instead blaming the West for inflaming tensions. It has stopped short of supplying weapons support but has reportedly provided drone parts, and last week participated in joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan.

On Friday, Russia claimed that Beijing’s third-highest ranking figure had offered an unprecedented endorsement of its actions in Ukraine. According to Moscow, Li Zhanshu told Russian legislators that China “understands and supports Russia”, particularly “on the situation in Ukraine”. The Chinese readout simply said Beijing would “continue to work with Russia to firmly support each other” on core interests.

The strength of the global response to the invasion and Russia’s recent losses have raised difficult questions for Mr Xi about his foreign policy acumen in aligning with Mr Putin, but he will probably remain supportive, said Prof Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses.

Prior to meeting each other, Mr Xi and Mr Putin were reportedly planning to each sit with Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a key figure in the region, particularly for China’s interests. — Guardian